the personal ramblings of Pauk...
Thursday 7 November 2013
Sunday 3 November 2013
The looming death bust...
The death bust (80 years after the baby boom) must be factored into any demographic arguments and our natural growth is downhill from here on in.
Tuesday 29 October 2013
Bubble up, bubble down
Bubble up = ageing + easy available credit + affordability + consistent high population growth (1970 to 2017)
Bubble down = ageing + unaffordability + rapid population growth decline (2017 to 2025)
Bubble down = ageing + unaffordability + rapid population growth decline (2017 to 2025)
Monday 1 July 2013
Population Ageing
Number of persons aged 60 years or over
There are approximately 810 million persons aged 60 years or over in the world in 2012 and this number is projected to grow to more than 2 billion by 2050. At that point, older persons will outnumber the population of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history. Asia has more than half (55 per cent) of the world’s older persons, followed by Europe, which accounts for 21 per cent of the total.
There are approximately 810 million persons aged 60 years or over in the world in 2012 and this number is projected to grow to more than 2 billion by 2050. At that point, older persons will outnumber the population of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history. Asia has more than half (55 per cent) of the world’s older persons, followed by Europe, which accounts for 21 per cent of the total.
Proportion of the total population aged 60 years or over
One out of every nine persons in the world is aged 60 years or over. By 2050, one out of every five persons is projected to be in that age group. The proportion of the total population that is 60 years or older is much higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed regions: one in five persons in Europe; one in nine persons in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean; and one in 16 persons in Africa. Although ageing is evolving fast in the more developed regions, the less developed regions will experience faster ageing over a much shorter period of time.
One out of every nine persons in the world is aged 60 years or over. By 2050, one out of every five persons is projected to be in that age group. The proportion of the total population that is 60 years or older is much higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed regions: one in five persons in Europe; one in nine persons in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean; and one in 16 persons in Africa. Although ageing is evolving fast in the more developed regions, the less developed regions will experience faster ageing over a much shorter period of time.
Share of persons aged 80 years or over
The older population is itself ageing. Currently, the oldest old population (aged 80 years or over) accounts for 14 per cent of the population aged 60 years or over. The oldest old is the fastest growing age segment of the older population. By 2050, 20 per cent of the older population will be aged 80 years or over. The number of centenarians (aged 100 years or over) is growing even faster, and is projected to increase tenfold, from approximately 343,000 in 2012 to 3.2 million by 2050.
The older population is itself ageing. Currently, the oldest old population (aged 80 years or over) accounts for 14 per cent of the population aged 60 years or over. The oldest old is the fastest growing age segment of the older population. By 2050, 20 per cent of the older population will be aged 80 years or over. The number of centenarians (aged 100 years or over) is growing even faster, and is projected to increase tenfold, from approximately 343,000 in 2012 to 3.2 million by 2050.
Sex ratio of older persons
The majority of older persons are women and the sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) is lower the older the age group. In 2012, at the world level, there are 84 men per 100 women among older persons, and only 61 men for every 100 women among the oldest old. The ratio of men to women at older ages is lower in the more developed regions (89 men per 100 women) than in the less developed regions (men per 100 women) because women outlive men by a wider margin in the more developed regions.
The majority of older persons are women and the sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) is lower the older the age group. In 2012, at the world level, there are 84 men per 100 women among older persons, and only 61 men for every 100 women among the oldest old. The ratio of men to women at older ages is lower in the more developed regions (89 men per 100 women) than in the less developed regions (men per 100 women) because women outlive men by a wider margin in the more developed regions.
Life expectancy at age 60
The world has experienced large improvements in longevity, while the gap across development regions has narrowed. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at birth was 66 years in the more developed regions compared with only 42 years in the less developed regions. By 2010-2015, it will reach 78 years and 67 years, respectively. On average, of those surviving to age 60 in 2010-2015, men can expect to live an additional 18 years and women an additional 22 years. Life expectancy at age 60 varies significantly across development regions. Men reaching age 60 can expect to live only 18 more years in the less developed regions compared to 21 more years in the more developed regions. Women reaching age 60 can expect to live an additional 20 years in the less developed regions compared with an additional 25 years in the more developed regions.
The world has experienced large improvements in longevity, while the gap across development regions has narrowed. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at birth was 66 years in the more developed regions compared with only 42 years in the less developed regions. By 2010-2015, it will reach 78 years and 67 years, respectively. On average, of those surviving to age 60 in 2010-2015, men can expect to live an additional 18 years and women an additional 22 years. Life expectancy at age 60 varies significantly across development regions. Men reaching age 60 can expect to live only 18 more years in the less developed regions compared to 21 more years in the more developed regions. Women reaching age 60 can expect to live an additional 20 years in the less developed regions compared with an additional 25 years in the more developed regions.
Proportion of older persons who are currently married
Older men are more likely to be married than older women. At the world level, 81 per cent of older men are currently married, compared to only 50 per cent of older women. Sex differences in the proportion married are largest in least developed countries (85 per cent for men compared to 38 per cent for women), where the age difference between spouses is higher and widowers are more likely to remarry. Most older unmarried persons are widowed. Women are more likely to outlive their spouses because they live longer and are, on average, younger than their husbands.
Older men are more likely to be married than older women. At the world level, 81 per cent of older men are currently married, compared to only 50 per cent of older women. Sex differences in the proportion married are largest in least developed countries (85 per cent for men compared to 38 per cent for women), where the age difference between spouses is higher and widowers are more likely to remarry. Most older unmarried persons are widowed. Women are more likely to outlive their spouses because they live longer and are, on average, younger than their husbands.
Proportion of older persons who are living independently
Living independently, that is, either living alone or only with one's spouse, is rare among older persons in developing countries, but is the dominant living arrangement in developed countries. An estimated 40 per cent of the world’s older persons live independently, with no discernible difference by sex. The gap in the proportion living independently between the more developed regions and the rest of the world is remarkable. Almost three quarters of all older persons in the more developed regions either live alone or only with their spouse compared with only a quarter in the less developed regions, and just over 10 per cent in the least developed countries. The predominance of independent living among older persons is likely to increase as the world’s population continues to age.
Living independently, that is, either living alone or only with one's spouse, is rare among older persons in developing countries, but is the dominant living arrangement in developed countries. An estimated 40 per cent of the world’s older persons live independently, with no discernible difference by sex. The gap in the proportion living independently between the more developed regions and the rest of the world is remarkable. Almost three quarters of all older persons in the more developed regions either live alone or only with their spouse compared with only a quarter in the less developed regions, and just over 10 per cent in the least developed countries. The predominance of independent living among older persons is likely to increase as the world’s population continues to age.
Old-age support ratio
The old-age support ratio, that is, the number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, is an indicator of demographic ageing and of the degree of dependency of older persons on potential workers. Since 1950, the world old-age support ratio has been continuously declining, which means that there are less “workers” to support every person aged 65 years or over. The ratio fell from 12 to 8 working-age persons for each older person between 1950 and 2012, and is projected to further decrease to 4 by 2050. In 2012, the old-age support ratio was much higher in the less developed regions (11 working-age persons per older person) than in the more developed regions (4 working-age persons per older person). The old-age support ratio has important implications for the solvency of social security systems (pensions and public health), as well as for the demand of private transfers from the working-age population to older family members.
The old-age support ratio, that is, the number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, is an indicator of demographic ageing and of the degree of dependency of older persons on potential workers. Since 1950, the world old-age support ratio has been continuously declining, which means that there are less “workers” to support every person aged 65 years or over. The ratio fell from 12 to 8 working-age persons for each older person between 1950 and 2012, and is projected to further decrease to 4 by 2050. In 2012, the old-age support ratio was much higher in the less developed regions (11 working-age persons per older person) than in the more developed regions (4 working-age persons per older person). The old-age support ratio has important implications for the solvency of social security systems (pensions and public health), as well as for the demand of private transfers from the working-age population to older family members.
Proportion of the older population in the labour force
Labour force participation among older persons varies by development region and gender. In 2012, the proportion of older persons who are economically active is much higher in the less developed regions (50 per cent among men and 22 per cent among women) than in the more developed regions (26 per cent among men and 15 per cent among women). Older persons in the less developed regions work until more advanced ages owing mainly to the limited coverage of social security schemes, as well as the relatively low value of the pensions received by those who are covered.
Labour force participation among older persons varies by development region and gender. In 2012, the proportion of older persons who are economically active is much higher in the less developed regions (50 per cent among men and 22 per cent among women) than in the more developed regions (26 per cent among men and 15 per cent among women). Older persons in the less developed regions work until more advanced ages owing mainly to the limited coverage of social security schemes, as well as the relatively low value of the pensions received by those who are covered.
Statutory retirement age
The statutory retirement age, which is defined as the minimum age at which people can qualify for full pension benefits, tends to be higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Also, in all countries of the world, the retirement age for women is the same as or lower than that for men—generally by five years. In most developed countries, men and women become eligible for full pension benefits at age 65 years or over, while in developing
countries, they often become eligible between 55 and 60 years. The lower statutory retirement ages common in developing countries is a reflection of their more incipient social security systems, their lower life expectancies and their higher old-age support ratios
The statutory retirement age, which is defined as the minimum age at which people can qualify for full pension benefits, tends to be higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Also, in all countries of the world, the retirement age for women is the same as or lower than that for men—generally by five years. In most developed countries, men and women become eligible for full pension benefits at age 65 years or over, while in developing
countries, they often become eligible between 55 and 60 years. The lower statutory retirement ages common in developing countries is a reflection of their more incipient social security systems, their lower life expectancies and their higher old-age support ratios
Sunday 21 April 2013
To avoid the looming generational war...
Simply!
We also need to tax the asset rich/cash poor (over 65′s) more.
We also need to tax the asset rich/cash poor (over 65′s) more.
1. GST to 20% and raise welfare and the tax free threshold accordingly to compensate.
2. Land tax to replace stamps and create reverse mortgages from Centrelink for those that are asset rich/cash for to pay.
3. CGT on all property sold under 10 years. Exemptions for real reasons to move – health, babies and work. No CGT after 10 years, ZERO!
4. Death tax on the value over $1million at 25%. (Rural and ongoing businesses exempt.)
5. Asset test the PPOR (value over $750k) for pension eligibility and also provide reverse mortgages exclusively from the govt, to those asset rich/cash poor. It is not fair that pensioners can live in a $5 million dollar home, have $1m in cash and still get a part pension!
Monday 15 April 2013
Robert Oakeshott MP shows his complete lack of a social conscience
Recently in a twitter conversation, Rob cheered that house prices were rising again. When I asked him why that would be a good thing for an advanced society, he responded...
"@OakeyMP
"@OakeyMP
“Because people own houses under private title, and people’s personal wealth matters. can I put it any more simply for you?”
Friday 12 April 2013
Julia thinks we can go to 40 million by 2050, she is mad as batpoo!
Mad as batpoo!
As our natural growth drops to perhaps to zero or even negative over the next 2.5 decades as our deaths double (boomers departing the home planet), what she is really saying is that we must accept a double or even a treble increase in immigration. Not going to happen! Will anyone accept 450,000 or 600,000 net immigrants per year? As I said, mad as batpoo!
End of September 2012 – 22 785, 000
ABS says now April 12, 2013 – 22, 988,000
So what 213,000 additions in 6 months? Just shows how ‘out’ the abs really is, like the 300,000 extra that they had that our census showed we did not.
Back of envelope – to get to 40 million from our 23 million, we will need to add 17 million over 28 years, or approx 607, 142 per year. Now lets say we have a natural growth (2013 to 2035) as 2.5 million (2013 at 150k, 2104 at 145k, 2035 at 50k etc to 2050) that means we would need to add 14.5 million net immigrants or approx 518K per year. Yep, not going to happen! What politics is this actually about? It certainly is not about reality or even possibility!
Tuesday 12 March 2013
Tuesday 26 February 2013
More ABS BS...
More BS from the ABS.
4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, Dec 2012
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features20Dec+2012
Read this and tell me how the international students, who were counted as permanent residents, get to return? They must leave and then apply for a skilled visa to return. The ABS is clearly wrong, like they were about being 300,000 people over our actual population...
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/oad/perm-dep/permdep.htm
4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, Dec 2012
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features20Dec+2012
Read this and tell me how the international students, who were counted as permanent residents, get to return? They must leave and then apply for a skilled visa to return. The ABS is clearly wrong, like they were about being 300,000 people over our actual population...
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/oad/perm-dep/permdep.htm
Monday 21 January 2013
Time to stop residential speculation.
1. Land tax on all property.
2. Full CGT on all property sold under 10 years ( exemptions for health, work or babies – legitimate reasons to move). No CGT for anyone if sold after 10 years.
3. Abolish stamps.
4. Rental pricing regulations so mining and natural disasters does not send rents to the moon.
5. Reverse mortgages supplied by Centrelink, for those who elect to accrue the land tax.
Rising house prices, well above the cpi or wage growth, is not desirable to an advanced society.
2. Full CGT on all property sold under 10 years ( exemptions for health, work or babies – legitimate reasons to move). No CGT for anyone if sold after 10 years.
3. Abolish stamps.
4. Rental pricing regulations so mining and natural disasters does not send rents to the moon.
5. Reverse mortgages supplied by Centrelink, for those who elect to accrue the land tax.
Rising house prices, well above the cpi or wage growth, is not desirable to an advanced society.
Saturday 19 January 2013
Australian Suburbs Population Decline 2006 to 2011
I am still in awe of the amount of suburbs like Rochedale, Springwood, Jindalee, Albany Creek and Capalaba that had population declines from 2006 to 2011.
A very nice new tool from Fairfax to play in.
Fairfax Population Growth Tool
So population decrease or increasse has very little to do with house prices, but population growth does?
I will need to ponder hard on the spruikers who talk about population growth driving prices higher, for surely the reverse must be true and yet It is not.
The amount of people at any certain age does.
Why did the new families not move into these burbs? Too unaffordable? Ganny or Grandpa holding onto their home? I suspect it is sociology and a dramatic rise in lone occupants that have caused the decline. Question is, what will happen to prices in these burbs when the lone occupants start to die on mass as our death rates double over the next 25 years.
Baby boom to death bust.
A very nice new tool from Fairfax to play in.
Fairfax Population Growth Tool
So population decrease or increasse has very little to do with house prices, but population growth does?
I will need to ponder hard on the spruikers who talk about population growth driving prices higher, for surely the reverse must be true and yet It is not.
The amount of people at any certain age does.
Why did the new families not move into these burbs? Too unaffordable? Ganny or Grandpa holding onto their home? I suspect it is sociology and a dramatic rise in lone occupants that have caused the decline. Question is, what will happen to prices in these burbs when the lone occupants start to die on mass as our death rates double over the next 25 years.
Baby boom to death bust.
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